Few friends forces me to think deeply about Nigeria as my classmate, erudite lawyer and poet, Ayantade Ipadeola. The problem with Tade as we fondly calls him is that he’s a deep thinker and a diligent observer of the Nigerian experiment. Of recent, Tade musings has become more and more alarmist. He strongly believes Nigerian leaders are driving the country into a precipice with eyes wide shut. He sees things many of us frequently choose to ignore. He’s candid that our literal manure may soon hit the fans. And yet, he believes we can right the course if we elect leaders with a certain modicum of respectability. He does not think our so called established top two political party candidates with gargantuan structures can save our land from the impending fracas. When I tried to assuage his fears, his tepid response is with that distinctively Akinmorin’s quip, “Toh”. As an incurable optimist, I tends to look at the sunny side of life but these days everywhere I turn, Tade’s dia syllabic response rings in my ears.
Of recent though, my problems seems compounded by news of the world and I see myself frequently mimicking Tade’s refrain in every conversation here in the US. Before you blame me, look anywhere in the world today, Ukraine, Brazil, Nigeria, Iran etc the masses and the poor all over the world are yearning not just for freedom but to throw off the yoke of oppression from the top richest one percent, who owns more than 50% of world’s wealth. It is hard to believe. And yet, do we in Nigeria, really think we are that different from others in the world? The statistics in Nigeria is even more staggering. Look at all the corruption world-wide, including many modern democracies. The other day, I informed a friend during a WhatsApp conversation that I am not entirely sure that humans are ultimately capable of long term governing - maybe humans are born to be corrupt and immoral.
In her book How Civil Wars Start, Barbara F. Walter mentions that it isn't income equality or lack of healthcare that cause a democratic people to enter civil war, it's when factions such as ethnic hatred, and regular citizens perceive that the government is powerless to govern. In fact, even rich countries that have a weak government (Weak rule of law, weak free press, no meaningful right of redress) are at significant risk of descending into civil war. The hating factions decide to solve by violence and the non-hating populace decides that the government is powerless to protect them - so each chooses a side and civil war begins.
She says civil wars today aren't like the war between the states that happened in the US in 1860. Rather, they start small, and are guerilla actions - like the Capital being stormed on January 6th. Like unknown gunmen in Southeastern Nigeria or Kaduna kidnappers, or those butchers in Zamfara who sacked whole village and took an entire village populace ransomed for money because of disagreement over gold mining.
So when people see government cheating and favoritism, it convinces people that they need to use violence because their own government is the problem. It is the number one risk of a civil war starting in a democracy. Ms. Walter uses South Africa as an example of a country that was on the brink of civil war because of apartheid, and how de Klerk's action defused things by freeing political prisoners, including Nelson Mandela, and eliminating laws designed to prevent black land ownership and commercial participation prevented civil war. Tade believes we need Peter Obi to do the same thing for Nigeria. Ethnic, racist factions have to believe there is more to lose by violence than not. And ordinary citizens have to believe the government will prevent violence and the implementation of an ethnic faction run state.
If state and local governments, regardless of which party has control, cannot decide that the constitution and rule of law are more important than their own career, then I think that the Nigeria will experience another violent civil war in our lifetime. We've already seen the beginning of this with unknown gun men in the East, throw in, IPOB, Yoruba nation activist and of course the relentless upsurge of violence and kidnapping in the Northcentral and northwest. Not to talk of Boko Haram complete wipe out of Northern Christian population in North east. In the US where I live, we see this in the activities of white supremacists, Oathkeepers, and antifa.
When a government like Trump's turns the rule of law into a joke, when it turns the media into an enemy of the state, ordinary people will come to see violence as the only solution to perceived wrongs, dictatorship and autocracy. When the Buhari administration looks the other way whilst herdsmen devastate southern Nigerian states, you will get similar results. In a lot of her examples, the violent ethnic hating factions (Syria, Bosnia, Serbia, Croatia, Nigeria, the US southern states - and many others) began small such that regular citizens were lulled into complacency and convinced there was no other viable course of action.
I am heartened that the January 6 invaders in the US are being held accountable, and that Donald Trump is at least being investigated, but I think the US is, at this moment, at a crossroads where we will either continue the democratic work in progress, or we will literally become Syria. At least, the system holds up and stems the tide, unlike Nigeria where the attorney general of the federation openly defends corrupt politicians and protect herdsmen. As in the US war between the states, enough Nigerian citizens must insist on a government of laws, such that law abiding citizens won't feel the need to join kidnappers, IPOB, Yoruba nation activist, Boko haram, iswap etc.
In the US, antifa, and the racists, misogynists and ethnic hating factions are finding it more costly to use violence than to get along, because the Biden administration dedicates resources to the prosecution of purveyors of violence.
I strongly encourage reading the book I mentioned above. Short read - maybe 225 pages. She provides the data and citations to support her assertions.
A
PS. The Census predicts that the US will become a minority white nation by 2045. As a group of Nigerian in diaspora, we need to get our government back on track to do the things we need it to do before then. Otherwise, how do we think white supremacists are going to react?
