Why Tade Ipadeola musings gives me sleepless nights

Few friends forces me to think deeply about Nigeria as my classmate, erudite lawyer and poet, Ayantade Ipadeola. The problem with Tade as we fondly calls him is that he’s a deep thinker and a diligent observer of the Nigerian experiment. Of recent, Tade musings has become more and more alarmist. He strongly believes Nigerian leaders are driving the country into a precipice with eyes wide shut. He sees things many of us frequently choose to ignore. He’s candid that our literal manure may soon hit the fans. And yet, he believes we can right the course if we elect leaders with a certain modicum of respectability. He does not think our so called established top two political party candidates with gargantuan structures can save our land from the impending fracas. When I tried to assuage his fears, his tepid response is with that distinctively Akinmorin’s quip, “Toh”. As an incurable optimist, I tends to look at the sunny side of life but these days everywhere I turn, Tade’s dia syllabic response rings in my ears.

Of recent though, my problems seems compounded by news of the world and I see myself frequently mimicking Tade’s refrain in every conversation here in the US. Before you blame me, look anywhere in the world today, Ukraine, Brazil, Nigeria, Iran etc the masses and the poor all over the world are yearning not just for freedom but to throw off the yoke of oppression from the top richest one percent, who owns more than 50% of world’s wealth. It is hard to believe.  And yet, do we in Nigeria, really think we are that different from others in the world?  The statistics in Nigeria is even more staggering. Look at all the corruption world-wide, including many modern democracies.  The other day, I informed a friend during a WhatsApp conversation that I am not entirely sure that humans are ultimately capable of long term governing - maybe humans are born to be corrupt and immoral.

 

In her book How Civil Wars Start, Barbara F. Walter mentions that it isn't income equality or lack of healthcare that cause a democratic people to enter civil war, it's when factions such as ethnic hatred, and regular citizens perceive that the government is powerless to govern.  In fact, even rich countries that have a weak government (Weak rule of law, weak free press, no meaningful right of redress) are at significant risk of descending into civil war.  The hating factions decide to solve by violence and the non-hating populace decides that the government is powerless to protect them - so each chooses a side and civil war begins.

 

She says civil wars today aren't like the war between the states that happened in the US in 1860.  Rather, they start small, and are guerilla actions - like the Capital being stormed on January 6th. Like unknown gunmen in Southeastern Nigeria or Kaduna kidnappers, or those butchers in Zamfara who sacked whole village and took an entire village populace ransomed for money because of disagreement over gold mining.

 

So when people see government cheating and favoritism, it convinces people that they need to use violence because their own government is the problem.  It is the number one risk of a civil war starting in a democracy.  Ms. Walter uses South Africa as an example of a country that was on the brink of civil war because of apartheid, and how de Klerk's action defused things by freeing political prisoners, including Nelson Mandela, and eliminating laws designed to prevent black land ownership and commercial participation prevented civil war.  Tade believes we need Peter Obi to do the same thing for Nigeria. Ethnic, racist factions have to believe there is more to lose by violence than not.  And ordinary citizens have to believe the government will prevent violence and the implementation of an ethnic faction run state.  

 

If state and local governments, regardless of which party has control, cannot decide that the  constitution and rule of law are more important than their own career, then I think that the Nigeria will experience another violent civil war in our lifetime.  We've already seen the beginning of this with unknown gun men in the East, throw in, IPOB, Yoruba nation activist and of course the relentless upsurge of violence and kidnapping in the Northcentral and northwest. Not to talk of Boko Haram complete wipe out of Northern Christian population in North east. In the US where I live, we see this in the activities of white supremacists, Oathkeepers, and antifa.  

When a government like Trump's turns the rule of law into a joke, when it turns the media into an enemy of the state, ordinary people will come to see violence as the only solution to perceived wrongs, dictatorship and autocracy.  When the Buhari administration looks the other way whilst herdsmen devastate southern Nigerian states, you will get similar results. In a lot of her examples, the violent ethnic hating factions (Syria, Bosnia, Serbia, Croatia, Nigeria, the US southern states - and many others) began small such that regular citizens were lulled into complacency and convinced there was no other viable course of action.

 

I am heartened that the January 6 invaders in the US are being held accountable, and that Donald Trump is at least being investigated, but I think the US is, at this moment, at a crossroads where we will either continue the democratic work in progress, or we will literally become Syria.  At least, the system holds up and stems the tide, unlike Nigeria where the attorney general of the federation openly defends corrupt politicians and protect herdsmen. As in the US war between the states, enough Nigerian citizens must insist on a government of laws, such that law abiding citizens won't feel the need to join kidnappers, IPOB, Yoruba nation activist, Boko haram, iswap etc.

In the US, antifa, and the racists, misogynists and ethnic hating factions are finding it more costly to use violence than to get along, because the Biden administration dedicates resources to the prosecution of purveyors of violence.

 

I strongly encourage reading the book I mentioned above.  Short read - maybe 225 pages.  She provides the data and citations to support her assertions.  

 

A

 

PS. The Census predicts that the US will become a minority white nation by 2045.  As a group of Nigerian in diaspora, we need to get our government back on track to do the things we need it to do before then.  Otherwise, how do we think white supremacists are going to react?

Understanding Mob Psychology and How to Inoculate yourself against Religious Bigotry

 “There goes the mob, and I must follow, for I am their leader.”- Anon. Possibly apocryphal words of Comte de Mirabeau, the French revolutionary leader.

A very simplistic explanation for the tragedy we are witnessing in Nigeria is the one that posits that all Nigerian needs is leadership and that if we had good leadership some of the problems we faces today would not be happening. I beg to differ. Followers may lack authority, but they do not necessarily lack power. Leaders are important in every society but Nigeria is not dysfunctional because of lack of leadership alone. In some respects, all leaders are followers; to retain their influence, those in positions of authority have no choice but to “track, to follow their followers if only to be sure that they stay in line.” In sum, we are who we are because of how we follow one another. Just look at the sickening video of the lynching of Deborah Yakubu. Do you see any leaders among the mob? They each walked up to did the sordid acts. Granted they might have been misled by bad teaching but they each had to reflect before engaging in this sordid extra-judicial killing. You don’t see any Saul later to be Paul standing by, directing the persecution? Nope! They are there as followers following other followers to kill a fellow human being based on a rumor of a taunt of the Holy Prophet. Don’t get me wrong, our leaders in Nigeria, secular and sectarian are all culpable for the gory show going on in Nigeria. 

But, clearly, our needs and wants as individuals are met by playing the part of follower, at least most of the time. We go along because we consciously or unconsciously determine it is in our interest to do so. Those who judged and executed Deborah Yakubu extra-judicially, do so as followers of their faith. The three reasons why followers follow leaders are the same reasons why followers follow other followers sheepishly. 

Safety, security, community and collective work makes followers comply sometimes involuntarily or voluntarily to leadership directives. 

So too, followers follow not only because it’s in their interest to conform to their leaders, but also because it’s in their interest to conform to their fellow followers. There are many followers of the 2 big Abrahamic faith in Nigeria who have little respect for their church leaders or imams but still go along because they fear what others may say if they quit going or challenge the orthodoxy. 

Followers provide each other with crucial reference points… “Alhaji, hope nothing is going on, we didn’t see you at mosques”. “Madam, hope all is well we didn’t see you at the church night vigil”. No one cares if Alhaji or Madam is able to provide food for the family or pay school fees, we are all focused on rituals and rites de passage of our faith. Alhaji may have assaulted Alhaja all night in a domestic violence rage, no one call law enforcement or intervene. Some even justify such assaults on women. It’s only when Alhaji missed the call for prayer we get worried. Same deal with Madam whose son or daughter could not continue with higher education because she cannot afford school fees but will readily pay tithe and donate her entire salary to a church led by a jet setting pastor.

This is why I say the most fundamental crucial point in the Nigerian dynamics is how we imitate and lead each other in negativity. Followers go along with other followers because they lend stability and security, provide order and meaning, and constitute the group to which they want to belong. In short, we are responsible for where we are and as long as we keep putting our failings on leaders we will never look inwards and examine ourselves.

What’s more, as psychologist such as Sigmund Freud had long ago concluded, human beings behave differently-worse- as members of groups than we do as individuals.

In groups our “unconscious instinctual impulses” trump what turns out to be the fragile veneer of civilization. 

“By the mere fact that he forms part of an organized group,” Freud wrote, “a man descends several rungs in the ladder of civilization. Isolated, he may be a cultivated individual; in a crowd he is a barbarian- that is, a creature acting by instinct, capable of committing acts in “utter contradiction with his character and habits.”

No matter how you look at it, the tragedy in Sokoto is damning. It is as if the gruesome murder of Deborah Yakubu is not enough satiety for the fiendish blood hounds youth masquerading as religious crusaders. We learned Sokoto youths are burning Igbo owned building materials shops and Catholic Churches. What’s the connection? 

Many Muslims are quick to quote, the immortal words of Sheikh Ahmed Deedat, an Islamic scholars renowned for his quick wit and intellect.: “The biggest enemy of Islam is the ignorant muslim, whose ignorance leads him to intolerance, whose actions destroy the true image of Islam, and when the people look at him they think Islam is what he is.”

True words and we say that about followers of Christ who know little about the person of Christ. What I found missing however is that many of the youth involved in this murderous rage may never have evidence of what Deborah Yakubu actually did or did not do. 

She’s condemned because the mob they followed told them, she has committed blasphemy. 

The idea of subservience to leadership authority and mob group think is common not only to Islam but all Abrahamic faith and creed. Christians may not have participated in the killings and fiendish rage going on in Sokoto but the unknown gunman decimating lives in Southeast have many Christians among them. This week someone unearthed a message by a prominent Pentecostals pastor urging Christians to vote in the interest of the church and ethnicity. He ended by saying this country is not a Fulani nation. It is this type of Us vs Them that led to bloodshed in Rwanda and death of Deborah Yakubu. What’s the interest of the church? Peace? And why does that exclude Fulani? Does it mean Fulani Christians are not part of kingdom blessings? 

I agree we must avoid false equivalence, the fiendish murderous rage going on in Sokoto should be condemned and we must prepare our youth to avoid willful ignorant obedience to authority, particularly by clerics from any creed or faith. Below are ways suggested by psychologists Phillip Zimbardo and Michael Lieppe on how we can inoculate ourselves against automatic obedience:

1. Remain engaged with alternative systems of authority, such as those deriving from one’s religious, spiritual, political, or philosophical commitments. Jesus never ask his followers to reject teachings of Judaism, rather he said he came to fulfill the law. Prophet Mohammed (pbuh) equally admonished his followers to be tolerant of peoples of other faiths including those who taunted him at Mecca. In other words, the leaders of these 2 great faiths are examples of moderation and not fanaticism.
2. Trust your intuition when you find yourself thinking, “something is wrong here”; donating your entire salary to a mega church whose pastor rides jet will not make you a millionaire it might turn you to a kidnapper or unknown gunmen out of frustration. Ditto, those who listen to an impassioned message by a cleric on Friday jumat service who urge you to hate peoples of other faith to the point of murdering them even whilst his own kids is in London or New York eating caviar 
3. When in doubt, seek out a knowledgeable-but independent-person to give you an “obedience check”;
4. Mentally rehearse disobedience strategies and techniques for various situations;
5. Be particularly vigilant when you notice people using euphemism to describe harmful behaviors or the people they harm; Burundi and Rwanda genocide has been traced to statements comparing other ethnic groups to cockroaches that must be exterminated. Hitler compares Jews to vermin and lice and ended up exterminating 6 million fellow human beings.
6. Don’t expect not to suffer adverse consequences when refusing to obey an authority figure-rather consider the worst case scenario and act on that possibility; you may lose promotion or jobs when you stand on principle. 
7. Choose carefully the organization and situations in which you place yourself, because it’s all too easy to overestimate your powers to resist.

In conclusion, my primary point is this: we are followers. Followers are us. This does not, of course, mean we always think and acts like the mobs who killed Deborah Yakubu, but then ask any of the murderers who did this heinous acts, they might not have conceived themselves perpetrating such evil last week. Not all of us follow all of the time-sometimes we lead. But all of us follow some of the time. Know who you are following and why. 

Stay safe and be reflective folks.